A –700 moneyline on an NFL game looks like a safe bet. The favorite is dominant, the matchup is a mismatch, what could go wrong? Plenty. Before you load up on a heavy favorite, it pays to understand exactly what you're risking — and why the math rarely works in your favor.
What does a –700 moneyline actually mean?
It means you risk $700 to profit $100. That's it. If the heavy favorite wins, you collect $800 total — your $700 back plus $100 profit. If they lose — and upsets happen in the NFL more than people admit — you're down $700. One loss wipes out seven wins. The corresponding underdog in that same game might sit at +500, meaning a $100 bet returns $500 in profit. The risk-reward relationship is completely flipped depending on which side of the line you're on. For a full breakdown of how these numbers work, see What Is a Money Line Bet? The Straight-Win Wager Explained.
Why do bettors keep falling into the heavy favorite trap?
It feels like free money. A team is clearly superior, the opponent is banged up, the public is hammering one side. The problem is that "almost certain" is not the same as "certain," and the sportsbook prices that difference into every line. Heavy NFL favorites can carry moneyline odds of –700 or higher. At that price, the implied probability baked into the line is extremely high — but NFL games are unpredictable enough that even a 90%+ implied win rate does not guarantee you'll avoid the occasional blowup loss.
Compare that to a pick 'em game, where both sides are priced near –110. The sportsbook still collects its vig on a coin-flip outcome. At –700, the vig is still there, just buried inside a much larger required stake. You are paying the house's commission no matter what the odds say. For a closer look at how the vig erodes value across every bet, check out Moneyline Betting Strategy: How to Spot Value and Avoid the Vig.
When does betting a heavy favorite even make sense?
Rarely as a standalone bet, and almost never at large stakes. Some bettors include a heavy favorite as one leg of a parlay to boost an otherwise modest payout — but parlaying adds its own risk since every single leg must win. Others use a heavy favorite moneyline when the number genuinely underestimates the true win probability, which requires sharp line-reading skills most recreational bettors don't yet have. Plugging exact odds into a calculator before you commit is a non-negotiable step. Use How to Calculate a Moneyline Payout Before You Bet to see the exact dollar return before you place anything.
What's the smarter move in a lopsided NFL matchup?
Consider the point spread instead, or look for alternate lines with better value. Sometimes the spread on a big favorite offers more upside than the moneyline at a punishing price. Understanding the full moneyline landscape — favorites, underdogs, implied probability, and line movement — helps you make that call confidently. NFL Moneyline Betting: How to Read Odds and Find Value walks through the full picture for NFL markets specifically.
Should I use any sportsbook I can find for these bets?
No. Using unlicensed or offshore sportsbooks provides no consumer protection, no regulated payout process, and may violate state law. Stick to licensed operators in states where online sports betting is legal. Legality varies by state — California, Texas, and several others do not yet have legal online sports betting markets.
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